A political science professor out of Stony Brook College in New York has a statistical model that has accurately predicted results of every election over the last century.
Helmut Norpoth uses a statistical model that takes into account each candidate’s performance in the primaries, where Trump dominated his opponents while Hillary struggled to defeat a socialist.
Indeed, Norpoth said that from a statistical standpoint, Republican Donald Trump has an 87% of winning the election, and may even defeat Hillary Clinton by 5 points when all the votes have been tallied.
It’s a model that has correctly predicted in advance the outcomes for two decades, and when applied retroactively, would have made the correct presidential call for every election since 1912 – the only caveat being the 2000 election which predicted Al Gore as winner (he won the popular vote).
Via the Independent:
A professor who developed a model which successfully predicted all but one presidential election result for the past 100 years has claimed Donald Trump will win the election.Professor Helmut Norpoth, of New York’s SUNY Stony Brook University, said the Republican candidate was likely to triumph in two weeks time because he was the strongest candidate in the primaries.
The political scientist developed a model which, when applied retroactively, accurately predicted every presidential election since 1912 – with the exception of the 2000 election, when it said Democratic candidate Al Gore would win.
Mr Gore won the popular vote, but following a disputed result in Florida, George W Bush was awarded more votes in the Electoral College and thus won the election.
One need only go back to the last presidential election to see the remarkable accuracy that Norpoth’s model displayed.
In 2012, he and his colleagues used the same model to predict that President Obama would defeat Mitt Romney comfortably … and they called it nearly a year in advance.
Cross-posted at the Political Insider